An ANC Breakup Would Be Good for South Africa

The tensions in the ANC have been brewing for a long time. Ever since the then ANC and South African president Thabo Mbeki in 2005 fired his state deputy Jacob Zuma the party has been in deep trouble. This was after Judge Hilary Squires infered that Jacob Zuma had a corrupt relationship with his friend Shabir Shaik. Shaik was convicted of corruption and sentenced. There have been people in the ANC/SACP/COSATU alliance who accused the Prosecuting Authority of being used by the State in a conspiracy to prosecute Zuma and stop him from succeeding Mbeki as both ANC and national president.

After Thabo Mbeki announced that he was going to stand for election as ANC president for a third term (contrary to some people's expectations that he would retire), the tensions became even more palpable. For Thabo Mbeki to stand for re-election meant he would stand against Jacob Zuma and that put the ANC in a very difficult position of having to be part of a "fight" between and the ANC president and his deputy rather than be witness to a smooth hand-over. Whether Mbeki should have stood or not, is now water under the bridge, but his decision meant that ANC members had to make a choice between him and Zuma. The populist Zuma managed to get the powerful COSATU and the "militant" ANC Youth League on his side.

The Polokwane Conference in December 2007 was a painful event for many people in the ANC. Thabo Mbeki was booed and humiliated infront of the whole world with TV cameras rolling. Of course many would argue that he brought it upon himself through his leadership style which apparently did not connect with the masses and by deciding to run for a third term.
But Thabo Mbeki still received above 40% of the votes and this is also reflected in the fact that he had the support of about that section of the ANC branches and grassroot members.
Thabo Mbeki left Polokwane weakened (still national president but not ANC president) and Jacob Zuma and his supporters left the conference strengthened and energized, but the ANC left Polokwane divided as a party. The new ANC leadership proclaimed that they would work to unify the party in view of the 2009 national elections. They said, they would reach out to the hurting "Mbeki supporters" to try and heal the rift and remind them of the greater ANC objective of improving the lives of South Africans (especially the poor). They talked about the fact that personal differences should not override the greater good of the ANC and the nation. They kept talking about the rich history and legacy of the 96year old party and the fact that the party has survived similar threats of division in the past and that it will bounce back again this time.

But ever since Dec 2007, it was very clear that the ANC was now a party divided. Many "Mbeki supporters" were not even elected to the National Executive Committee of the party. The ANC leadership structures were now dorminated by the so-called Zuma supporters. There were tensions even at provincial level where the Zuma supporters, embolded by Polokwane, went after the Mbeki supporters and in some cases removed them from various positions. The talk of "healing the party" was never translated into action, mainly because the animosity between the two camps was too big. The involvement of "outsiders" such as COSATU and SACP in the internal affairs of the ANC made it even more difficult. Thabo Mbeki had been lamenting about their involvement during his time as ANC president. There had been fall-outs between Mbeki and Blade Nzimande (SACP Secretary General) about the SACP demands to be "heard and taken seriously" by the ANC, since they were alliance partners. The Zuma leadership is greatly dependant on the SACP and COSATU (e.g. the current ANC Secretary General Manthashe is SACP Chairman). On top of that Jacob Zuma desparately needs COSATU and SACP as part of his "troopers" to make threats of making the country "ungovernable" and attack the judiciary for prosecuting him. It is very evident that COSATU/SACP and ANC Youth Leauge have helped Zuma is his legal problems and it appears that it is now time for the Zuma ANC to pay these "friends" back. The SACP and COSATU have attained a much bigger role in the ANC now that during Mbeki's tenure.
Between December 2007 and now the tensions between the new ANC leadership and the Mbeki supporters have not been resolved and in some cases worsened. The issue is, what direction should the ANC take and who actually personifies the "soul of the ANC"? Is it the left leaning Zuma camp or the the more market oriented Mbeki camp? Is it the sophisticated and intellectual Mbeki style or the jirating, toy-toying, dancing and folksstyle of Zuma and the alliance partners?
The statement by Judge Nicholson towards the end of September, which hinted that there was involvement of the executive (i.e. Mbeki) in influencing the prosecuting Zuma, was the straw that broke the carmel's back. The hawks in the Zuma camp who have been bying for Mbeki's bllod finally got their excuse to push for a decision to recall him (a nice word for "firing") from the office of state president.
Thabo Mbeki was forced to resign (about 6 months before the end of his term). This event like no other thus far marked indeed the split of the ANC. There has been a lot of speculation about the formation of a new and breakaway party eversince Thabo Mbeki was fired.

Today (8 October), Mousioa Lekota (ex ANC chairman) and other leading ANC leaders held a press conference in Sandton City to announce that they are of the opinion the current ANC leadership has veered from the original objectives of the organisation. They were critical of the leadership style of the current leaders and the fact that dissenting voices are being marginalised. They announced that in the next 4 weeks they will hold a consultative confrence where all people interested in the democracy and direction of South Africa will be invited. Everybody who is not happy with the direction the current ANC leadership is taking will be invited to this conference.
They threatened that unless the ANC changes its direction, "this could be the parting of the ways."
Mousioa Lekota mentioned that "they are serving divorce papers" to the ANC.
The implication is that a new party will be formed and this new party will contest the 2009 elections.
There are differing opinions about the possible split of the ANC and whether a new party will survive, it must however be mentioned that any organisation that can challenge to political dorminance of the ANC is good for South African democracy.

1. All functioning democracies in the world have more than one dorminant party. A ruling party must always be looking over its shoulder because there is another party ready to capture the votes and get into power.
2. Absoulute power corrupts and leads to the arrogance of power. This has been evidenced in many countries, mainly in Africa. A clear example is ZANU-PF of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. When political parties are "guaranteed" to stay in power, they are no longer accountable to the people.
3. One of the biggest problems liberation movements have is the ability to transform from a liberation organisation to a modern party in government. Often the same militant, rigid and inward looking attitudes that served a purpose during the liberation days, remain intact. Hence the tendency of the ANC leadership to talk about "killing for....", "we will crush you.." and intolerance to opposing views. An ANC split will force the party to relook at how it relates to the rest of the society and hopefully transform into a modern party.

We will all watch the space and follow the developments closely.