At about 21Hoo (on Sept 11), Morgan Tsvangirai had come out of the meeting venue and simply said, "We have a deal. President Mbeki will release a statement." From his demeanor, Morgan appeared pleased that he had achieved most of his objectives. Realising that negotiations are always a "give and take", he knew that it was not the ideal (i.e. total power) but it was a deal, he could live with and which the MDC and its supporters and Zimbabweans would accept. But like the EU spokesperson said, we will have to wait to see the details on monday to see what the MDC finally accepted as fair and equitable.
Highlights of Deal
The following has been gleaned so far from sources concerning the main aspects of the deal:
1.Robert Mugabe (ZANU-PF) becomes State President with two deputies from Zanu PF;
2. Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC-T) becomes Prime Minister with two deputies, one from MDC-M and one from MDC-T;
3. Mugabe, as head of state and government, to chair cabinet of 31 ministers;
4. Tsvangirai to preside over a council of ministers, supervises ministers, formulates and implements policies, sits in National Security Council (JOC) and heads government business in parliament;
5. Zanu PF to have 15 ministers and eight deputy ministers, Tsvangirai’s MDC faction 13 ministers and six deputy ministers and the Arthur Mutambara faction three ministers and 1 deputy minister;
6. Provincial governors to be shared among the three parties;
7. If an elected representative (MPs and Senators) dies or is recalled by their party 12 months from the day of signing, none of the other parties to the deal will contest the by-election;
8. The "inclusive government" will remain in power for a maximum five years. A review of the power-sharing deal will take place in 18 months, and every year thereafter;
9. New constitution after 18 months.
10. Constitutional Amendment to be done immediately to facilitate implementation of the agreement.
Why Such A Deal Might Be The Only Feasible Way Forward?
Many Zimbabweans were hoping for a complete power transfer from Mugabe to Tsvangirai. Who would blame them, given the over 11 million % inflation, over 90% unemployment, broken down economy, political violence and deaths of thousands at the hands of Mugabe etc.
But a look at the situation reveals that, desireable by many as this might be, it is not the reality on the ground. ZANU-PF has 99 MPs, MDC-T has 100 MPs (difference of 1 MP) and MDC-M has 10MPs. Mugabe got 43% and Tsvangirai 47% in the presidential elections on March 29, 2008. We could argue that the playing field was not even and if it had been even, Tsvangirai would have won by more than 50%. However this would be difficult to prove because it would depend on projections and speculations. The facilitator would also have had a difficult time "selling" this to ZANU-PF.
The voting patterns therefore show that both ZANU-PF and MDC-T have almost equal support in Zimbabwe. I deal with the question of "Why 43% of Zimbabweans still voted for Mugabe" in my article
http://alvin-mas.blogspot.com/2008/07/why-43-still-voted-for-robert-mugabe-on.html
Therefore it is the way Zimbabweans voted on March 29, which put the MDC in a difficult position during negotiations. If the vote for the MDC had been overwhelming, Mugabe would have had no choice but to give up all the power.
Therefore the facilitator President Mbeki (whether we agree with his approach or not) had a hard time "forcing" Mugabe to give up ALL the power and therefore the MDC had to accept the following:
1. Delicate Balance: The agreement had to be a delicate balancing act that takes into account the balance of power as expressed by the March 29 election results.
2. SADC/AU/Mbeki's Reluctance to Push Mugabe: The African leaders were not keen to push Mugabe to go. This reluctance is largely due to the fact that most of them are not democrats and as Mugabe rightly said "I want to see the finger that points at me and see if it is clean or dirty." This is an institutional weakness of both SADC and AU. Zimbabwe needs to be part of SADC and AU and the MDC knew that the chances of getting a deal would be through these African organisations. The way world politics works is such that even if the USA and UK and the EU want to force change in Zimbabwe, their options are very limited. Even the UN Security Council could be limited in its activities by a simple veto from Russia and China (which too are not really democratic and take sides with many undemocratic leaders of Africa) . The MDc therefore had to go into the talks knowing that there are things they could not change in the SADC/AU approach, namely the reluctance to push Mugabe too far. The goal therefore would have been to make the best out of it.
3. Re-running the Presidential Election Not Feasible At This Moment: Given that the March 29 election did not produce an outright winner (according th ZEC results) and June 27 elections were a sham, one would have said, let's have another re-run soon and let the people decide. But the terror unleashed by ZANU-PF on the people between May and June this year left the nation traumatized and really not keen to have another election so soon. The only way to persuade the electorate to go to vote would have been through a UN monitored and run election. However the logistics of such an exercise would have required more time to put in place i.e. a the UN would need a vote to do that and hope there is no veto in the Security Council, prepare the ground for an election, put systems in place, fund it etc. This would have taken about 12 to 18 months to put in place (assuming that everything goes well and there are no objections). Zimbabwe would have had no legitimate government for another 18 months or so. Given the hemorrhaging of the economy and the utter devastation currently existing, one would wonder if the nation would have "survived" that long. A greater influx of refugees into the neighbouring nations would have occured.
Given the above and many other issues, the best way out of the situation was to "deal with the devil" (as the MDC would see it). There had to be a way of having to live with the fact that Mugabe had been a factor in Zimbabwe politics for a long time and he wasn't going to disappear overnight.
The strategy would then have to shift from taking over all power in one stroke to systematically chipping away Mugabe/ZANU-PF's power and work one's way to the levers of power. This would then be a phased "take over" which could last anything from 2 to 4 or 5 years. And this is exactly what this deal is all about and why the MDC accepted it as the second best way of removing the Mugabe regime from power. This deal, inspite of its weaknesses, has some very positive aspects to it.
The Positive Aspects of Deal
1. Changing the Zimbabwe Constitution
The current Zimbabwe constitution gives the President so much power such that he can run the country with no parliament. Mugabe has used his powers to basically run Zimbabwe like his private property. He can hire and fire anybody, he can go to war (e.g. DRC in the 1990s) without parliament approval, he can manipulate the justice system, electoral system and government without being accountable to anybody. That is one reason, he didn't want to give up the executive presidency. He knew what another executive president vested with the powers he currently have could do. This deal allows for the constitution to be changed/overhauled in the next 18 months. This has always been one of the major goals of the opposition movements over the last 20 years. This deal finally makes that a reality.
There are many repressive laws in the country and these need to be removed e.g. lack of press freedom, no right of assembly or hold a rally without police permission, partisan police and army leadership etc.
2. The Demilitarisation of State Institutions
The amount of power given to the MDC in the new government allows them to push for the demilitarisation of state institutions. Robert Mugabe has over the years been using the military and the army to run state institutions. The ZEC chairman during the 2008 elections (George Chiweshe) is an ex-army general, for example. These military people are fiercely loyal to Mugabe and have closed off any room for political activity to the oppositon. Morgan Tsvangirai as Prime Minister will be a powerful member of the National Security Council and can work to send the army back to the barracks and let civilians run the country. That would take away a lot of what Muagbe has used over the years to stay in power.
3. MDC Controls Parliament/Has Majority in Cabinet
The MDC-T managed to win the powerful Speaker position and they have authority over parliament. If MDC-M and some moderate ZANU-PF members are pulled in, MDC-T as the largest party in parliament can exert lots of influence on the direction of the country, irrespective of who chairs cabinet. Both MDC factions have more ministers in cabinet than ZANU-PF. If it came down to a vote in cabinet, Mugabe can not have his way. Even if there is some tension between MDC-T and MDC-M, they are in principle united in wanting to see Mugabe leave the scene and eliminate ZANU-PF's stranglehold on the country.
4. MDC-T Controls Majority of Local Governments
The MDC-T won the majority of local government elections on March 29. They won ALL major urban municipal elections. This puts them in a powerful position to influence the state at a local and grassroot level.
5. Create Space for Oppositon
The deal creates space for multi-party democracy in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe has always been effectively a one-party state since 1980. There was never an opposition party to challenge ZANU-PF and this led to the Mugabe regime becoming arrogant and believing that they own Zimbabwe. That is why, even after losing the March 29 election, they still behave like they have power. This deal will clean up the system and grant the nation many civil liberties
6. Healing of the Nation
The hatred that exists in some places between ZANU-PF and MDC supporters can not be ignored. For the country to move forward a process of healing is necessary and this healing would have been more difficult if the deal had resulted in an "winner take all" situation. It is important that no party comes out feeling that they have lost everything. This would simply have perpetuated the animosity.
7. The Imminent Departure of Mugabe
Robert Mugabe and his personality has been a major contributing factor to the "disaster" in Zimbabwe. Even within his own party, he has failed to lead, prepare for a successor and open up the democratic space in the party. At 84 years old and with his party divided (there are major rifts within ZANU-PF) it won't be long before he is either removed by his own people or before he quits. The divisions within ZANU-PF have been "hidden" behind a "united front against the MDC" and with a coalition government, the MDC can no longer be viewed as an "enemy" and the divisions within ZANU-PF will become even more evident. This deal will facilitate Mugabe's departure from the ZANU-PF leadership and given the divisions in the party, the party might fragament into two or more camps, and thus weakening it severely. There are people who argue, that without Mugabe, ZANU-PF will not survive, just like UNIP in Zambia "died" after Kenneth Kaunda left office.
7. Getting the Economy Going
Maybe the most important task of the new government would be to get the economy going. The MDC had rejected the previous deal because it gave responsibilities to the Prime Minister, but very little authority, if at all. This deal gives some clout to the Prime Minister to lead and influence and conduct governement business. This would enable the MDC led government to get the economy back on track. This of course requires massive financial injection into the economy and since the West has indicated that they will not deal with Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai, can raise his profile by leading the reconstruction of the nation. Given the goodwill of the western donors towards an MDC led governement, this deal would help in the process.
Conclusion
This agreement is not the 100% ideal which the MDC initially demanded, but given the complexity of the situation, it might just be the best that is available.This agreement also keeps the MDC true to itself and to keep the promise it made to the Zimbabweans that "the MDC will not let the people down or sell-out to Mugabe or buckle to the tricks and pressures from ZANU-PF or Thabo Mbeki or SADC."
We all hope that this deal marks an important step in the process of recovery and healing for Zimbabwe. It is now up to the leaders to step up to the challenge and lead the nation.
And my opinion is that the glass is indeed 80% full and we can live with that!
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