The MDC Pragmatic and Calculated Gamble

The national executive of the MDC-T (Zimbabwe) decided today (30 January) to enter the inclusive goverment with Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF and the other MDC faction lead by Arthur Mutambara. Ever since the signing of the Global Agreement on September 15, the MDC has been holding out on the implementation of this agreement because they accused Robert Mugabe of betraying the spirit and in some cases the letter of the agreement. Robert Mugabe unilaterary appointed the provincial governors (who although they don't seat in cabinet, have ministerial status), the Governor of the Reserve Bank (renewed the failed Gideon Gono's contract) and the Attorney General. Mugabe also unilaterally decided on the allocation of ministries and claimed tht he as President has the prerogative to do that and appoint senior governement officials and Ambassadors. This would be true in a case where the President has been elected by the people and has a mandate. The March 29, 2008 election results show that Robert Mugabe came second to Morgan Tsvangirai and ZANU-PF is no longer the largest party in parliament. The current position of President and Prime Minister came out of a negotiated compromise and the spirit of that settlement demands that the President consults all the other parties and shares senior psotions among all parties.

It was always known that the greatest challenge to face this inclusive government as defined by the Sept 15, 2008 agreement was going to be trust between the two parties (ZANU-PF and the the two MDC factions). There has been so much animosity between the parties and the Mugabe government has terrorised the MDC leadership over the last 10 years. It is therefore crucial for Mugabe to make concrete gestures towards the MDC in order to create an environment of trust. Things such as allocation of positions would not have been so controversial if there was already a trust relationship between the parties. The MDC wouldn't have been so concerned about a ZANU-PF minister running the Home Affairs ministry, if they trusted that ZANU-PF would not abuse the position. These concerns have already been evidenced by the unwarranted arrests and abductions of MDC and civil soceity activitists towards the end of 2008. There are huge concerns about Mugabe's sincerity in ensuring that this fragile deal succeeds. As already mentioned, it's all about trust and making moves that show a willingness to establish that trust. So far, the Mugabe regime (which is illegitimate because they lost the March 2008 elections) has not given anybody reason to trust it. The continuous demonization of Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC in the Zimbabwe public media (The Herald, ZBC) and at public functions, is another sign of either madness or stupidity or the evil nature of the Mugabe government. Anybody with an IQ if a 7 year old would know that during times of negotiations and when one is trying to build a relationship with another party, one has to mind how they speak about the other party. Mugabe seems to have lost all sense of normalcy and decency in this regard.

The MDC has therefore been appealing to SADC to look at its concerns and understand why it hasn't gone into the governement. SADC was also requested to call Mugabe to order and force him to play by the rules of fairness. Unfortunatelty SADC has not been willing to exert pressure on Mugabe and hence the stand-off.
Even after the November 2008 SADC Extra-ordinary Summit in Sandton/Johannesburg where SADC ruled that the Home Affairs Ministry be "co-ministered" by both MDC and ZANU-PF, the MDC was still unwilling to be part of the government. There have been further SADC initiatives in 2009 to get things going, including the issuing of a passport to Morgan Tsvangirai and finally the January 26 2009 SADC Head of States Summit in Pretoria. After this summit, the MDC leadership finally decided (though reluctantly) to go into the inclusive government. The timelines have been set, namely the passing of Ammendement 19 on Februry 5, swearing in of PM and Deputy PMs on February 11 and the swearing in of Cabinet Ministers on February 13. This decision has evoked various responses from various people. Some think that Robert Mugabe is not genuine about the deal and will want to swallow up the MDC. They believe Mugabe is not keen to give up any meaningful power but only interested in his own survival. And without Mugabe giving up power, this government won't succeed.

But I am of the opinion that if the MDC plays it cards well, it can really use this governement to achieve its ultimate goal namely, to rid Zimbabwe of Mugabe and ZANU-PF and all the corruption and misrule they brought with. This would lead to a prosperous Zimbabwe again. And I am sure that was the pragmatic thinking that led to the MDC agreeing to go into the inclusive government, although it didn't get 100% of what it asked for from SADC. The following are the eleven reasons for my pragmatic optimism.

1. MDC Limited by SADC and AU

Zimbabwe is part of SADC and AU and the way world politics work, the regional bodies are the first port of call in cases of controversy. That is why the AU mandated SADC to deal with Zimbabwe. Morgan Tsvangirai can not receive a hearing from AU unless SADC facilitates it and the MDC is keenly aware of that. The MDC has been raising concerns about the fairness of Thabo Mbeki and of SADC. It has been a frustrating situation, especially given the fact that the UN is limited by the China and Russia vetoes in the Security Council on the matter of Zimbabwe. After pushing SADC as hard as it could, the MDC realised that they won't get more than the concessions they got on January 26. Even an appeal to the AU won't bring much because the AU will listen to SADC's report and give it more preference to the MDC report. And the fact that the AU has much "more serious issues" to deal with (e.g. Darfur, DRCongo etc) means it wouldn't put much effort in the Zimbabwe situation. Some people have called for the MDC to ignore SADC and go it alone, but that is a dangerous road to take. Zimbabwe is such a small matter on the global agenda (given the current global financial crisis, Gaza crisis, Burma crisis, DRCongo etc.) and to find oneself outside the regional bodies would weaken the MDC voice. There are cases which have been ignored by the world after a while e.g. Somalia. There is no functioning governement in Somalia and the world has given up. No more media coverage. Zimbabwe would fall off the world radar screen if the MDC ignores SADC. One can have one's own opinion about the effectiveness of SADC and AU in resolving the Zimbabwe situation, but the MDC leadership knows that one needs them in order to play world politics. And therefore the MDC accepted the SADC ruling of January 26 and Morgan Tsvangirai clearly mentioned that they can't afford to disregard SADC.

2. MDC Majority in Parliament and Speaker's Position

The MDC formations have a majority in parliament and the MDC-T has the powerful position of Speaker of Parliament. This a huge power base to push some reforms in Zimabwe. The greatest problem in Zimbabwe are the structural defects of the system. Too much power is vested in the President and if the President is Mugabe, you have a problem. The consitution is defective and the Mugabe government has basically politicised state institutions. It is important to reform the state and therefore th parliamentary majority will be very key for the MDC. Mugabe can not get his way in parliament and a simple thing like the national budget would not get through without the MDC support.

3. MDC Majority in Cabinet

Of the 31 cabinet positions, ZANU-PF will have 15 and MDC 16. This is a slim majority but it is still a majority for the MDC. The way government works is that policy is formulated in cabinet. There has been so much talk about who runs Home Affairs but if one looks at how government works, the minister of home affairs is subjected to cabinet. The minister is not above cabinet and for all practical purposes the question of who actually is minister has been over exaagerated in my opinion. Cabinet makes policy, decides on direction the country should take, controls all organs of government. The MDC majority in cabinet can be exploited to bring about change.

4. MDC Controls of Majority of Local Governments

In the March 2008 elections the MDC won the local governement elections in all major cities and towns and many rural councils. The MDC controls Harare, Bulawayo, Gweru, Mutare, Masvingo, Chitungwiza, Chinhoyi, Zvishavane, Kwe Kwe etc. The MDC also made huge inroads in some rural councils and has a strong presence in these local governments. This fact has been often overlooked in the course of the controversy around the implementation of the agreement. MDC controlled local governments will make it difficult for Mugabe to manipulate the people. Local governments are in direct contact with the people and the MDC can use these to mobilise people.

5. JOMIC- A Monitoring Mechanism

The Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) was activated soon after the January 26 SADC summit. It is made up of 4 members from each of the 3 parties i.e. 12 people. JOMIC is co-chaired by people from these 3 parties. It's role is to receive any complaints or matters that pertain to the implementation of the agreement, look at them and try to resolve them. It will monitor the compliance with the agreement. If ZANU-PF "misbehaves" JOMIC will look at the matter and recomend what action to take. Mugabe has been notorious for disregarding monitoring bodies, but the fact that SADC instituted JOMIC means SADC will be involved (though indirectly) in JOMIC

6. Reviews of Unilateral Appointments

One of the biggest concessions Mugabe was forced to make at the SADC summit was to accept that the appointments he made after September 2008 and the allocation of cabinet positions will need to be reviewed. SADC ruled that the cabinet appointments be reviewed 6 months after the swearing in of government and the other appointments (e.g. Attorney General) to be reviewed by the new government. Mugabe can not just appoint without consulting the MDC. The appointments of the 9 governors will also be reviewed.

7. Constitutional Changes in 18 Months

The global agreement of September 2008 stipulates that a new constitution will be put up for a referendum within 18 months of swearing in of government. This would be a major victory for the MDC and civic soceity in Zimbabwe. The woes of Zimbabwe emanate from a fundamenatlly flawed constitution. Robert Mugabe has been ammending the constitution over the last 29 years in order to suit his corrupt and brutal tendencies. A new constitution would change Zimbabwe from what it is today to a modern and democratic state.

8. The Prime Minister's Position

As already submitted, the issue of which party runs which ministry has been, in my opinion, over exxagerated. A key player in the government will be the Prime Minister and his deputies. Morgan Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister and Vice-Chair of Cabinet. Although Mugabe will be head of state and chair of cabinet, all cabinet ministers will report also to the Prime Minister. Morgan Tsvangirai will be able to use his office to ensure ZANU-PF ministers toe the line. Given that MDC will have majority in cabinet, they could push many issues on their agenda through. They will also be able to control ZANU-PF.

9. MDC in Government Can Reform State Institutions

MDC in government can achieve much in reforming state institutions that have been abused by Mugabe over the years e.g. State Media, Youth Training Programs, National Events, Police, Army etc. There is one other issue that too has gone unnoticed, and that is the fact that the rank and file of Zimbabweans working in these institutions are fed up with Mugabe. It is the top bosses who benefit from the regime. The majority of the rank and file of the employees can't wait for the renewal of the state. They often do what they are told and as soon as Morgan Tsavngirai becomes Prime Minister and acquires a position of authority, they will support him. If one talks to individual governement employess, policemen/women, soldiers, the vast majority of them are fed up with Mugabe because he has impoverished them. They would support an MDC led government. There is a lot of goodwill towards the MDC among the common people.
The MDC in governement can use this to achieve its goals. I covered a lot of the detail in this regard in my previous articles.

http://alvin-mas.blogspot.com/2008/09/what-zimbabwe-deal-can-achieve.html

http://alvin-mas.blogspot.com/2008/09/zimbabwe-dealis-glass-half-empty-or.html

10. Mugabe is 85 and Will Soon Leave

Robert Mugabe is 85 years old, tired, weary and is not in the best of health. It is almost 99.99% certain that he will not stand as the ZANU-PF candidate in the next general election (2014). He would be 90 then (if he is still alive). I am sure the MDC had that in mind when they decided to go into government. Without Mugabe ZANU-PF will not survive in its current state. The party is very divided and has lost its grassroot organisational infrastructure. It is a party of the past and does not enthuse people any more. It has managed to present an image of its existence up to now because it has abused its position in government. Using state resources unchecked and state media it has pretended that all is well. In an inclusive government ZANU-PF will have to fight for the hearts and minds of Zimbabweans like any other party with no unfair advantage. And with an 85 year old leader, it is only a question of time before MDC finally takes over from ZANU-PF. Many battles are won in stages and this is one of them. My guess is that within 3 years Mugabe will give way or he will be too old or too sick to continue.

11. The Economy

The Zimbabwe economy has virtually collapsed and everybody (including Mugabe) knows that only an effective involvement of the MDC in government will revive the economy. Mugabe has always used two major weapons to stay in power and eliminate enemies i.e. bribery or brutal force. He could bribe in the days he could plunder the state coffers. At this moment in time there is nothing to plunder and he can't even afford to pay his own police and soldiers. Dangerous as Mugabe might be, he is currently severly weakened. There is very little he can give to his cronies. The presentation of a budget in US dollars by Patrick Chinamasa (Acting Minister of Finance) in Zimbabwe parliament last week is indicative of the fact that Mugabe no longer has any money. The Zimbabwe dollar, he has been printing is now worthless. He definitely doesn't have enough US dollars to bribe so many people. The Zimabwe economy has effectively been dollarised. All transactions, even selling newspapers on the street or taxi fares, are now being conducted in US dollars or South African Rands. That has taken away a lot of Mugabe's economic power. This is an opportunity for the MDC to raise its profile through reviving the economy.

Conclusion

This is of course an optimistic analysis but there is good reason to believe it. Everybody (including SADC) knows that Mugabe and ZANU-PF are the problem and they see this as a transition to a "Mugabe-free" era in Zimbabwe.

It is now imperative for the western donors and funders to support the MDC in its role in the new government. The MDC did not take this decision lightly, but it was the best they could do given the situation.

The Pressure of Being Barack Obama

There is no doubt that January 20 will mark a significant milestone in world affairs and even more so in the history of the United States of America. The inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the USA will be different to any other inauguration of a US President before him. Barack Obama will not only be the first African American to move into the Oval Office, but he would also have been the President-Elect with the highest approval ratings in history (over 70% according to the poll done a few days ago). And as fate would have it, Barack Obama's inauguration on January 20, takes a place a day after Martin Luther King's birthday (19 January) and that has great symbolism. Martin Luther King would have indeed wept tears of joy if he were alive today, because an African American tenant in the White House would have been part of his dream.
But besides being the first African American president, Obama comes into the office as a president carrying on his shoulders an unbelievably huge amount of pressure due to the extremely large expectations from many people. First and foremost Obama was elected and is the president of the USA and should respond to the needs and demands of the US citizens, but it looks like the whole world seems to demand and expect that he solves the world's problems.
Whether he will meet these expectations remains to be seen, and as Warren Buffet said to Tom Bronkaw on NBC "I have no doubt that Barack Obama will be a good Commander-in-Chief, but he might not be able to meet all the people's expectations."

Watching the WE ARE ONE event at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington DC on Sunday 18 January with the hundreds of thousands of people who braved the freezing weather to attend the event and the star-studded cast of celebrities who definitely donated their talents and time to celebrate the coming of Obama into office, one got a sense that America was yearning for a new day. One could feel a real sense of joy and a real sense of hope that things would become better. And somehow one could also sense a great sigh of relief that the Bush era was finally over.
The pressure on Barack Obama's shoulders must be tremendous although he doesn't seem to be showing it. And as we observed during the gruelling 2 years of campaigning in the primary and main elections, Obama has the amazing ability to take such pressures in his stride. There are huge expectations from the US population and the whole world.

1. Fixing The US Economy
The US and indeed the world economy is in the deepest recession ever since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Financial institutions have gone bankrupt and some had to be bailed-out at a large expense to the taxpayer. Most of the market indicators have been on a decline for a long time now. World prices of resources have been decreasing, oil price moved from over $120 to about $50 a barrel, platinum price has gone from over $2 000 per ounce to below
$1 000. And all this in a few months. This economic downturn has had huge impact on manufacturing, mining, retail and service industries. The bosses of the big three car manufacturers in the USA had to travel to Congress to beg for assistance to rescue the industry. Of course this has led to serious job losses and retrenchments.
The US population is resting its hopes on Barack Obama. They expect him to fix the economy, put America back on track, ensure that the good times come back and the economic boom returns.


2. Healing The US Society
The Bush years have polarised the US society. Some people argue that even Bill Clinton was a polarizing president, and evoked strong feelings on both sides of the divide i.e. those who liked him adored him like a god but those who didn't like him, hated him. But there is no doubt that George W Bush was a divisive president and this has mainly to do with with the controversial way that he won the 2000 presidential election against Al Gore. There are many people who still believe that the US elections in 2000 were rigged, especially in Florida. The final outcome of that election was determined by the courts and Al Gore decided not to take the matter further with the courts for the sake of the nation and for fear of tearing the country apart through a legal battle.
Then the Bush policies on the war on terror and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan led to divided opinions among the Americans.
It must however be said that some of the challenges the USA faced during the Bush era were not necessarily of Bush's creation (e.g. Sept 11, 2001 attacks and subsequent responses) but George Bush did not do a good job to take the nation along as he tried to solve them. Somehow there seemed to be a disconnect between the president and the people. As a result, towards the end of his presidency he had the lowest approval ratings in the history of the USA.
Therefore, the US American society is looking forward to a healing of the nation during the Obama presidency. There are expectations that Obama will be a unifying leader.

3. Resolving World Problems
Not just the US Americans, but the entire world seems to see Obama as a saviour. From Europe to Asia to Africa to the Americas, the entire world population has high expectations. This is likely due to a sense that the Bush administration pursued unilateralist policies and America went on its own in trying to resolve world problems. In the process the USA became isolated on the world stage.
Obama is seen as a bridge builder and one the world can do business with. Besides the high level political relationships on the world stage, common citizens of many countries expect Obama to be instrumental in solving their own problems. Be it in Africa (where Obama's father came from) or in the the occupied territories of Palestine or Cuba, people hope the Obama presidency will make a positive difference in their lives. No one knows exactly how that will happen, but they still hope in any case.
There are many hot spots in the world where a credible leadership of the US government is needed and there is a strong sense that the Obama government might stand a better chance of making a difference than the Bush government. Be it in the Sudan or the Israel-Palestinian conflict or in the relationship of Russia with Europe.

One thing is certain, Obama will need to manage the huge expectations people have and there are signs that he is fully aware of these expectations. He has already been hinting that solving some of these major challenges will take a lot of work and time and that people have to be patient.
We will only know at the end of his term how he handled the huge pressure and whether he indeed manage to meet the expectations of the 6 billion plus world population.
In the meantime let us let Washington DC and the whole of the USA have is big inauguration party on January 20, because the real hard work will begin on January 21.