It was always known that the greatest challenge to face this inclusive government as defined by the Sept 15, 2008 agreement was going to be trust between the two parties (ZANU-PF and the the two MDC factions). There has been so much animosity between the parties and the Mugabe government has terrorised the MDC leadership over the last 10 years. It is therefore crucial for Mugabe to make concrete gestures towards the MDC in order to create an environment of trust. Things such as allocation of positions would not have been so controversial if there was already a trust relationship between the parties. The MDC wouldn't have been so concerned about a ZANU-PF minister running the Home Affairs ministry, if they trusted that ZANU-PF would not abuse the position. These concerns have already been evidenced by the unwarranted arrests and abductions of MDC and civil soceity activitists towards the end of 2008. There are huge concerns about Mugabe's sincerity in ensuring that this fragile deal succeeds. As already mentioned, it's all about trust and making moves that show a willingness to establish that trust. So far, the Mugabe regime (which is illegitimate because they lost the March 2008 elections) has not given anybody reason to trust it. The continuous demonization of Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC in the Zimbabwe public media (The Herald, ZBC) and at public functions, is another sign of either madness or stupidity or the evil nature of the Mugabe government. Anybody with an IQ if a 7 year old would know that during times of negotiations and when one is trying to build a relationship with another party, one has to mind how they speak about the other party. Mugabe seems to have lost all sense of normalcy and decency in this regard.
The MDC has therefore been appealing to SADC to look at its concerns and understand why it hasn't gone into the governement. SADC was also requested to call Mugabe to order and force him to play by the rules of fairness. Unfortunatelty SADC has not been willing to exert pressure on Mugabe and hence the stand-off.
Even after the November 2008 SADC Extra-ordinary Summit in Sandton/Johannesburg where SADC ruled that the Home Affairs Ministry be "co-ministered" by both MDC and ZANU-PF, the MDC was still unwilling to be part of the government. There have been further SADC initiatives in 2009 to get things going, including the issuing of a passport to Morgan Tsvangirai and finally the January 26 2009 SADC Head of States Summit in Pretoria. After this summit, the MDC leadership finally decided (though reluctantly) to go into the inclusive government. The timelines have been set, namely the passing of Ammendement 19 on Februry 5, swearing in of PM and Deputy PMs on February 11 and the swearing in of Cabinet Ministers on February 13. This decision has evoked various responses from various people. Some think that Robert Mugabe is not genuine about the deal and will want to swallow up the MDC. They believe Mugabe is not keen to give up any meaningful power but only interested in his own survival. And without Mugabe giving up power, this government won't succeed.
But I am of the opinion that if the MDC plays it cards well, it can really use this governement to achieve its ultimate goal namely, to rid Zimbabwe of Mugabe and ZANU-PF and all the corruption and misrule they brought with. This would lead to a prosperous Zimbabwe again. And I am sure that was the pragmatic thinking that led to the MDC agreeing to go into the inclusive government, although it didn't get 100% of what it asked for from SADC. The following are the eleven reasons for my pragmatic optimism.
1. MDC Limited by SADC and AU
Zimbabwe is part of SADC and AU and the way world politics work, the regional bodies are the first port of call in cases of controversy. That is why the AU mandated SADC to deal with Zimbabwe. Morgan Tsvangirai can not receive a hearing from AU unless SADC facilitates it and the MDC is keenly aware of that. The MDC has been raising concerns about the fairness of Thabo Mbeki and of SADC. It has been a frustrating situation, especially given the fact that the UN is limited by the China and Russia vetoes in the Security Council on the matter of Zimbabwe. After pushing SADC as hard as it could, the MDC realised that they won't get more than the concessions they got on January 26. Even an appeal to the AU won't bring much because the AU will listen to SADC's report and give it more preference to the MDC report. And the fact that the AU has much "more serious issues" to deal with (e.g. Darfur, DRCongo etc) means it wouldn't put much effort in the Zimbabwe situation. Some people have called for the MDC to ignore SADC and go it alone, but that is a dangerous road to take. Zimbabwe is such a small matter on the global agenda (given the current global financial crisis, Gaza crisis, Burma crisis, DRCongo etc.) and to find oneself outside the regional bodies would weaken the MDC voice. There are cases which have been ignored by the world after a while e.g. Somalia. There is no functioning governement in Somalia and the world has given up. No more media coverage. Zimbabwe would fall off the world radar screen if the MDC ignores SADC. One can have one's own opinion about the effectiveness of SADC and AU in resolving the Zimbabwe situation, but the MDC leadership knows that one needs them in order to play world politics. And therefore the MDC accepted the SADC ruling of January 26 and Morgan Tsvangirai clearly mentioned that they can't afford to disregard SADC.
2. MDC Majority in Parliament and Speaker's Position
The MDC formations have a majority in parliament and the MDC-T has the powerful position of Speaker of Parliament. This a huge power base to push some reforms in Zimabwe. The greatest problem in Zimbabwe are the structural defects of the system. Too much power is vested in the President and if the President is Mugabe, you have a problem. The consitution is defective and the Mugabe government has basically politicised state institutions. It is important to reform the state and therefore th parliamentary majority will be very key for the MDC. Mugabe can not get his way in parliament and a simple thing like the national budget would not get through without the MDC support.
3. MDC Majority in Cabinet
Of the 31 cabinet positions, ZANU-PF will have 15 and MDC 16. This is a slim majority but it is still a majority for the MDC. The way government works is that policy is formulated in cabinet. There has been so much talk about who runs Home Affairs but if one looks at how government works, the minister of home affairs is subjected to cabinet. The minister is not above cabinet and for all practical purposes the question of who actually is minister has been over exaagerated in my opinion. Cabinet makes policy, decides on direction the country should take, controls all organs of government. The MDC majority in cabinet can be exploited to bring about change.
4. MDC Controls of Majority of Local Governments
In the March 2008 elections the MDC won the local governement elections in all major cities and towns and many rural councils. The MDC controls Harare, Bulawayo, Gweru, Mutare, Masvingo, Chitungwiza, Chinhoyi, Zvishavane, Kwe Kwe etc. The MDC also made huge inroads in some rural councils and has a strong presence in these local governments. This fact has been often overlooked in the course of the controversy around the implementation of the agreement. MDC controlled local governments will make it difficult for Mugabe to manipulate the people. Local governments are in direct contact with the people and the MDC can use these to mobilise people.
5. JOMIC- A Monitoring Mechanism
The Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC) was activated soon after the January 26 SADC summit. It is made up of 4 members from each of the 3 parties i.e. 12 people. JOMIC is co-chaired by people from these 3 parties. It's role is to receive any complaints or matters that pertain to the implementation of the agreement, look at them and try to resolve them. It will monitor the compliance with the agreement. If ZANU-PF "misbehaves" JOMIC will look at the matter and recomend what action to take. Mugabe has been notorious for disregarding monitoring bodies, but the fact that SADC instituted JOMIC means SADC will be involved (though indirectly) in JOMIC
6. Reviews of Unilateral Appointments
One of the biggest concessions Mugabe was forced to make at the SADC summit was to accept that the appointments he made after September 2008 and the allocation of cabinet positions will need to be reviewed. SADC ruled that the cabinet appointments be reviewed 6 months after the swearing in of government and the other appointments (e.g. Attorney General) to be reviewed by the new government. Mugabe can not just appoint without consulting the MDC. The appointments of the 9 governors will also be reviewed.
7. Constitutional Changes in 18 Months
The global agreement of September 2008 stipulates that a new constitution will be put up for a referendum within 18 months of swearing in of government. This would be a major victory for the MDC and civic soceity in Zimbabwe. The woes of Zimbabwe emanate from a fundamenatlly flawed constitution. Robert Mugabe has been ammending the constitution over the last 29 years in order to suit his corrupt and brutal tendencies. A new constitution would change Zimbabwe from what it is today to a modern and democratic state.
8. The Prime Minister's Position
As already submitted, the issue of which party runs which ministry has been, in my opinion, over exxagerated. A key player in the government will be the Prime Minister and his deputies. Morgan Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister and Vice-Chair of Cabinet. Although Mugabe will be head of state and chair of cabinet, all cabinet ministers will report also to the Prime Minister. Morgan Tsvangirai will be able to use his office to ensure ZANU-PF ministers toe the line. Given that MDC will have majority in cabinet, they could push many issues on their agenda through. They will also be able to control ZANU-PF.
9. MDC in Government Can Reform State Institutions
MDC in government can achieve much in reforming state institutions that have been abused by Mugabe over the years e.g. State Media, Youth Training Programs, National Events, Police, Army etc. There is one other issue that too has gone unnoticed, and that is the fact that the rank and file of Zimbabweans working in these institutions are fed up with Mugabe. It is the top bosses who benefit from the regime. The majority of the rank and file of the employees can't wait for the renewal of the state. They often do what they are told and as soon as Morgan Tsavngirai becomes Prime Minister and acquires a position of authority, they will support him. If one talks to individual governement employess, policemen/women, soldiers, the vast majority of them are fed up with Mugabe because he has impoverished them. They would support an MDC led government. There is a lot of goodwill towards the MDC among the common people.
The MDC in governement can use this to achieve its goals. I covered a lot of the detail in this regard in my previous articles.
http://alvin-mas.blogspot.com/2008/09/zimbabwe-dealis-glass-half-empty-or.html
10. Mugabe is 85 and Will Soon Leave
Robert Mugabe is 85 years old, tired, weary and is not in the best of health. It is almost 99.99% certain that he will not stand as the ZANU-PF candidate in the next general election (2014). He would be 90 then (if he is still alive). I am sure the MDC had that in mind when they decided to go into government. Without Mugabe ZANU-PF will not survive in its current state. The party is very divided and has lost its grassroot organisational infrastructure. It is a party of the past and does not enthuse people any more. It has managed to present an image of its existence up to now because it has abused its position in government. Using state resources unchecked and state media it has pretended that all is well. In an inclusive government ZANU-PF will have to fight for the hearts and minds of Zimbabweans like any other party with no unfair advantage. And with an 85 year old leader, it is only a question of time before MDC finally takes over from ZANU-PF. Many battles are won in stages and this is one of them. My guess is that within 3 years Mugabe will give way or he will be too old or too sick to continue.
11. The Economy
The Zimbabwe economy has virtually collapsed and everybody (including Mugabe) knows that only an effective involvement of the MDC in government will revive the economy. Mugabe has always used two major weapons to stay in power and eliminate enemies i.e. bribery or brutal force. He could bribe in the days he could plunder the state coffers. At this moment in time there is nothing to plunder and he can't even afford to pay his own police and soldiers. Dangerous as Mugabe might be, he is currently severly weakened. There is very little he can give to his cronies. The presentation of a budget in US dollars by Patrick Chinamasa (Acting Minister of Finance) in Zimbabwe parliament last week is indicative of the fact that Mugabe no longer has any money. The Zimbabwe dollar, he has been printing is now worthless. He definitely doesn't have enough US dollars to bribe so many people. The Zimabwe economy has effectively been dollarised. All transactions, even selling newspapers on the street or taxi fares, are now being conducted in US dollars or South African Rands. That has taken away a lot of Mugabe's economic power. This is an opportunity for the MDC to raise its profile through reviving the economy.
Conclusion
This is of course an optimistic analysis but there is good reason to believe it. Everybody (including SADC) knows that Mugabe and ZANU-PF are the problem and they see this as a transition to a "Mugabe-free" era in Zimbabwe.
It is now imperative for the western donors and funders to support the MDC in its role in the new government. The MDC did not take this decision lightly, but it was the best they could do given the situation.
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